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Shock result as Dibba Al-Fujairah defy the odds to beat Baniyas SC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Baniyas SC 2-1 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.02 xG and Baniyas SC 1.58 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Dibba Al-Fujairah beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.81 / defence 1.14 against Baniyas SC attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 14/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 24% | Draw 25% | Baniyas SC 50%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Dibba Al-Fujairah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 50%, Baniyas SC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Baniyas SC's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.64 PPG, Baniyas SC 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dibba Al-Fujairah win broke the near-deadlock. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights