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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Wahda FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Wahda FC finished level at 1-1 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.81 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.74 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.79 / defence 1.28 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.77, drawn from 7/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 17% | Draw 23% | Al Wahda FC 59%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 71%, Al Wahda FC 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 0.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights