Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-1 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dibba Stadium plays host to Dibba Al-Fujairah versus Al Nasr in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Monday 24 April 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dibba Al-Fujairah have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Dibba Stadium this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dibba Stadium this season.
Al Nasr's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Nasr have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Al Nasr are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Dibba Al-Fujairah 1W, Al Nasr 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2022, ended 1–0 with Dibba Al-Fujairah winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Dibba Al-Fujairah half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Al Nasr half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dibba Al-Fujairah 39% versus Al Nasr 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 39% | Al Nasr 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.24 xG and Al Nasr 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.684 / defence 0.994 | Al Nasr attack 0.967 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.445. Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Nasr bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Dibba Al-Fujairah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 49 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 34% | Draw 26% | Al Nasr 40%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Al Nasr 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Nasr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dibba Al-Fujairah 40% | Al Nasr 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Dibba Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 Apr 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 34% | Draw 26% | Al Nasr 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.24 / Al Nasr 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.684 / def 0.994 | Al Nasr attack 0.967 / def 1.205 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al Nasr xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr kicked off at 17:45 on Monday 24 April 2023 at Dibba Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 2 - 1 Al Nasr.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 34% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr?
Record (1 meetings): Dibba Al-Fujairah 1W | Draws 0 | Al Nasr 0W.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Al Nasr (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack at 0.68x the league average against Al Nasr's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Nasr's attack (0.97x) against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 23/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
34%
2.98
26%
3.83
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
2.63
1.39
Al Nasr xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
8%
11.95
12%
8.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1.39 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, Dibba Al-Fujairah have picked up 0.65 PPG on a 4W 3D 16L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Nasr's form line: 6W 6D 11L from 23 games, 1.04 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.65 PPG for Dibba Al-Fujairah against 1.04 for Al Nasr. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dibba Al-Fujairah have posted 0.45 PPG from 11 outings (1W 2D 8L).
On the road, Al Nasr have gone 1W 4D 6L from 11 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Nasr's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.09 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 4W 3D 16L in their last 23 games (0.65 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 6W 6D 11L in their last 23 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home or Al Nasr away?
Al Nasr's away record (0.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home: 0.45 PPG; Al Nasr away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Dibba Al-Fujairah or Al Nasr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Al Nasr in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dibba Al-Fujairah
2
Draws
0
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 2, Al Nasr have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-1 Al Nasr.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Nasr?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dibba Al-Fujairah see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Al Nasr see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al-Fujairah 46%, Al Nasr 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Dibba Al-Fujairah) and 46% (Al Nasr).
On the defensive side: Dibba Al-Fujairah have failed to score in 46% of games; Al Nasr in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Al Nasr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent matches and 54% of Al Nasr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent games and 46% of Al Nasr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Dibba Al-Fujairah defy the odds to beat Al Nasr 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Al Nasr 2-1 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.24 xG and Al Nasr 1.39 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.68 / defence 0.99 against Al Nasr attack 0.97 / defence 1.21, drawn from 23/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 34% | Draw 26% | Al Nasr 40%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Dibba Al-Fujairah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 39%, Al Nasr 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Al Nasr's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.65 PPG, Al Nasr 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dibba Al-Fujairah win broke the near-deadlock. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.