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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad Kalba edge out Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-2 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.22 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.72 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.93 / defence 1.41 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.97 / defence 0.93, drawn from 3/29 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 27% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 49%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 100%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad Kalba arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ittihad Kalba scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights