Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-3 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Ain at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium plays host to Dibba Al-Fujairah versus Al Ain in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 23 August 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dibba Al-Fujairah's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dibba Al-Fujairah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Ain have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al Ain have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Ain away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Al Ain are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W, Al Ain 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2023, ended 0–3 with Al Ain winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.08 xG and Al Ain 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.835 / defence 1.315 | Al Ain attack 1.117 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.420. Data: 1 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 27 Al Ain games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 19% | Draw 21% | Al Ain 60%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 5.26 | Draw 4.76 | Al Ain 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Al Ain (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Ain at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 19% | Draw 21% | Al Ain 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.08 / Al Ain 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.835 / def 1.315 | Al Ain attack 1.117 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Al Ain (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Al Ain xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 August 2025 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 2 - 3 Al Ain.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 19% chance of winning, Al Ain a 60% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Ain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Ain will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Ain?
Record (2 meetings): Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W | Draws 0 | Al Ain 2W.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Ain in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Al Ain (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack rating (0.83) and Al Ain's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Ain's attack (1.12x) against Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 2.09.
The sample (1/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Ain Win
19%
5.27
21%
4.85
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
3.17
2.09
Al Ain xG
5.27
19%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
12%
8.05
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
2%
42.47
20%
4.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 2.09 for Al Ain, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dibba Al-Fujairah come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Ain sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Ain, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Ain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Al Ain are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al-Fujairah have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Al Ain in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Early Season
Al Ain
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Ain in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Al Ain have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al Ain go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Ain won 4-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Ain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
0
Draws
4
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Ain?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, Al Ain have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Ain last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Al Ain 4-0 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Al Ain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's games and 100% of Al Ain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Al Ain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's matches and 100% of Al Ain's.
Do Dibba Al-Fujairah and Al Ain tend to score early?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Ain in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Ain edge out Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 2-3 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.08 xG and Al Ain 2.09 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Dibba Al-Fujairah beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Ain outscored their 2.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.83 / defence 1.31 against Al Ain attack 1.12 / defence 0.93, drawn from 1/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 19% | Draw 21% | Al Ain 60%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 100%, Al Ain 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dibba Al-Fujairah scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al Ain scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.