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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Khorfakkan run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Baniyas SC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Khorfakkan beat Baniyas SC 0-3 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.32 xG and Khorfakkan 1.51 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Baniyas SC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Khorfakkan outscored their 1.51 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.88 / defence 1.25 against Khorfakkan attack 0.97 / defence 1.17, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 33% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 42%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 59%, Khorfakkan 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baniyas SC's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Khorfakkan's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 0.91 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights