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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baniyas SC and Khorfakkan finished level at 3-3 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.34 xG and Khorfakkan 1.60 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Baniyas SC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khorfakkan outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.75 / defence 1.33 against Khorfakkan attack 0.88 / defence 1.16, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 32% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 44%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 59%, Khorfakkan 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baniyas SC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Khorfakkan's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 1.04 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights