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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Baniyas SC and Dibba Al-Fujairah share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Baniyas SC and Dibba Al-Fujairah drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.11 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.29 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Baniyas SC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.74 / defence 1.24 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.84 / defence 1.13, drawn from 32/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 32% | Draw 27% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 41%, with Dibba Al-Fujairah to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 33%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baniyas SC's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did.

Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 0.00 PPG, Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Baniyas SC scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Dibba Al-Fujairah scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights