Baniyas SC 0-2 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Wasl FC (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Baniyas SC face Al-Wasl FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Al-Wasl FC travel to Baniyas Stadium to take on Baniyas SC. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 13 March 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baniyas SC stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baniyas SC at Baniyas Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Wasl FC are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Al-Wasl FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Baniyas SC's 0 victories.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 2–3 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
It is worth noting that Al-Wasl FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Baniyas SC trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Wasl FC trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baniyas SC 58% and Al-Wasl FC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 62% | Al-Wasl FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.14 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.856 / defence 0.936 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.244 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.599. Al-Wasl FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.244 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Baniyas SC games / 41 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 23% | Draw 23% | Al-Wasl FC 54%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 4.35 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Wasl FC 1.85. Al-Wasl FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 70% | Al-Wasl FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 23% | Draw 23% | Al-Wasl FC 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Baniyas SC 1.14 / Al-Wasl FC 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.856 / def 0.936 | Al-Wasl FC attack 1.244 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.599 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Al-Wasl FC xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 13 March 2024 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Baniyas SC 0 - 2 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 23% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (5 meetings): Baniyas SC 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Wasl FC 4W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Baniyas SC's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Al-Wasl FC's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
23%
4.33
23%
4.40
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.00
1.86
Al-Wasl FC xG
4.33
23%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
16%
6.44
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
4%
27.84
17%
5.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.86 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Baniyas SC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 11W 7D 22L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 25W 10D 5L from 40 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Wasl FC are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Baniyas SC have posted 0.95 PPG from 20 outings (5W 4D 11L).
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 12W 6D 2L from 20 away games — 2.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 2.20 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 11W 7D 22L in their last 40 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 25W 10D 5L in their last 40 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al-Wasl FC's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 0.95 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Baniyas SC or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baniyas SC have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2023, when Al-Wasl FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Baniyas SC
2
Draws
7
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 1, Al-Wasl FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Baniyas SC 2-0 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Baniyas SC at 60%, Al-Wasl FC at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Baniyas SC and 65% for Al-Wasl FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al-Wasl FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Baniyas SC's games and 70% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Baniyas SC's matches and 65% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Baniyas SC and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Baniyas SC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Baniyas SC 0-2 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.14 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.86 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Baniyas SC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.86 / defence 0.94 against Al-Wasl FC attack 1.24 / defence 0.85, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 23% | Draw 23% | Al-Wasl FC 54%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 62%, Al-Wasl FC 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.