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Stalemate at Baniyas SC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Baniyas SC and Al Nasr drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.96 xG and Al Nasr 1.49 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Baniyas SC fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Al Nasr landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Al Nasr attack 0.98 / defence 1.29, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 48% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 29%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 58%, Al Nasr 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baniyas SC's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al Nasr's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights