Baniyas SC 0-0 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baniyas SC at 48%, yet in-form Al Nasr provide a compelling counter-argument — this Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Nasr make the trip to Baniyas Stadium to face Baniyas SC in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Baniyas SC's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Baniyas Stadium, Baniyas SC have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Baniyas SC are significantly better at Baniyas Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Nasr have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Nasr's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al Nasr arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Baniyas SC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Al Nasr in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Baniyas SC lead 2W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2024, ended 1–4 with Al Nasr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Baniyas SC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al Nasr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baniyas SC 60% and Al Nasr 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 58% | Al Nasr 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.96 xG and Al Nasr 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.850 / defence 1.022 | Al Nasr attack 0.985 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.792 / away 1.484. Al Nasr bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Baniyas SC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Baniyas SC games / 40 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 48% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 29%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | Al Nasr 3.45. Baniyas SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baniyas SC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Nasr (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baniyas SC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.45 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 80% | Al Nasr 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 48% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Baniyas SC 1.96 / Al Nasr 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.850 / def 1.022 | Al Nasr attack 0.985 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.792 / away 1.484 • Poisson stance: Baniyas SC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Al Nasr xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Baniyas SC 0 - 0 Al Nasr.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 48% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Baniyas SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Nasr?
Record (7 meetings): Baniyas SC 2W | Draws 2 | Al Nasr 3W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Nasr in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Al Nasr (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baniyas SC's attack at 0.85x the league average against Al Nasr's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Nasr's attack (0.98x) against Baniyas SC's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baniyas SC Win
48%
2.07
22%
4.50
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.45
1.49
Al Nasr xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
4%
24.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.49 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baniyas SC's recent record stands at 11W 8D 21L from 40 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Nasr, meanwhile, have gone 19W 7D 14L across 40 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Nasr by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Baniyas SC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Baniyas SC have managed 7W 5D 7L from 19 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Nasr's away record stands at 7W 3D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.72 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baniyas SC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Al Nasr in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 19W 7D 14L in their last 40 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al Nasr away?
Baniyas SC's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.37 PPG; Al Nasr away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Nasr won 4-1 on 29 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baniyas SC
3
Draws
4
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 3, Al Nasr have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al Nasr 0-2 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al Nasr?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Baniyas SC, 63% for Al Nasr — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Baniyas SC and 79% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Nasr in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al Nasr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Baniyas SC's games and 63% of Al Nasr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Baniyas SC's matches and 79% of Al Nasr's.
Do Baniyas SC and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Baniyas SC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Baniyas SC and Al Nasr drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.96 xG and Al Nasr 1.49 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Baniyas SC fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Al Nasr landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Al Nasr attack 0.98 / defence 1.29, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 48% | Draw 22% | Al Nasr 29%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 58%, Al Nasr 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Nasr's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.