Baniyas SC 0-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Baniyas SC welcome Al-Ittihad Kalba to Baniyas Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 August 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Baniyas SC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Baniyas SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Baniyas Stadium, Baniyas SC have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Baniyas SC) versus 1.10 (Al-Ittihad Kalba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Baniyas SC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Baniyas SC, 2 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 52% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 59% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.54 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.995 / defence 1.147 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.024 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.457. Data: 27 Baniyas SC games / 27 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 35% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 42%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 60% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 35% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Baniyas SC 1.54 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.995 / def 1.147 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.024 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 22 August 2025 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Baniyas SC 0 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 35% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (8 meetings): Baniyas SC 3W | Draws 3 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baniyas SC's attack rating (0.99) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
35%
2.88
23%
4.32
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.25
1.71
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.88
35%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
18%
5.54
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
6%
15.97
9%
11.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 1.71 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baniyas SC's recent record stands at 7W 6D 14L from 27 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Baniyas SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 11L across 27 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baniyas SC on 1.00 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Baniyas SC have managed 3W 5D 5L from 13 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 3W 5D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.44 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Early Season
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 7W 6D 14L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 8W 8D 11L in their last 27 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Baniyas SC's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 1.08 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Baniyas SC
3
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 4, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Baniyas SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Baniyas SC at 62%, Al-Ittihad Kalba at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Baniyas SC and 62% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Baniyas SC's games and 69% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Baniyas SC's matches and 62% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad Kalba edge out Baniyas SC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Baniyas SC 0-1 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.54 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.71 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baniyas SC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.99 / defence 1.15 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 27/27 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 35% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 42%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 59%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 1.00 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad Kalba win broke the near-deadlock. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.