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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.40 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.00 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.89 / defence 1.33 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.00 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 27% | Draw 22% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 51%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 61%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baniyas SC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 1.02 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights