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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Baniyas SC and Al-Dhafra share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Baniyas SC and Al-Dhafra drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.64 xG and Al-Dhafra 0.94 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Dhafra outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Al-Dhafra attack 0.68 / defence 1.25, drawn from 49/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Dhafra 21%, with Baniyas SC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 48%, Al-Dhafra 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baniyas SC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Dhafra's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 1.09 PPG, Al-Dhafra 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Dhafra (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights