🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Al Ain run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Baniyas SC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Ain beat Baniyas SC 0-3 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.41 xG and Al Ain 1.85 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Baniyas SC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al Ain outscored their 1.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.83 / defence 1.31 against Al Ain attack 1.07 / defence 1.12, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 29% | Draw 23% | Al Ain 48%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 59%, Al Ain 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baniyas SC's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al Ain's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights