Al-Wasl FC 1-1 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Wasl FC vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Wasl FC and Sharjah FC meet at Zabeel Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 March 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Wasl FC's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Zabeel Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sharjah FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.30 PPG for Al-Wasl FC against 1.80 for Sharjah FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Wasl FC, 1 for Sharjah FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Wasl FC half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Sharjah FC half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 57% versus Sharjah FC 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 50% | Sharjah FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.24 xG and Sharjah FC 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.191 / defence 0.810 | Sharjah FC attack 1.169 / defence 0.676. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.477. Sharjah FC's defence strength of 0.676 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Al-Wasl FC games / 44 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 33% | Draw 26% | Sharjah FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Sharjah FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Wasl FC 70% | Sharjah FC 30%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 33% | Draw 26% | Sharjah FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.24 / Sharjah FC 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.191 / def 0.810 | Sharjah FC attack 1.169 / def 0.676 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Sharjah FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Sharjah FC?
Al-Wasl FC 1 - 1 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 33% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Sharjah FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 1W | Draws 1 | Sharjah FC 1W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Sharjah FC in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Sharjah FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Wasl FC's attack at 1.19x the league average against Sharjah FC's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sharjah FC's attack (1.17x) against Al-Wasl FC's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
33%
3.01
26%
3.83
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
2.63
1.40
Sharjah FC xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
8%
12.20
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.40 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Wasl FC come into this having played 44 games, going 20W 14D 10L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sharjah FC sit at 2.02 PPG from 44 outings (27W 8D 9L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Al-Wasl FC against 2.02 for Sharjah FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Wasl FC's home form reads 10W 8D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Sharjah FC have taken 2.00 points per game from 22 outings (13W 5D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.84 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Sharjah FC in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 20W 14D 10L in their last 44 games (1.68 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 27W 8D 9L in their last 44 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 1.73 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 4-1 on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Wasl FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sharjah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Wasl FC
2
Draws
4
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, Sharjah FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Sharjah FC 2-1 Al-Wasl FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 54%, Sharjah FC 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Wasl FC) and 46% (Sharjah FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Sharjah FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 36% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al-Wasl FC's recent games and 46% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC and Sharjah FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Al-Wasl FC and Sharjah FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.24 xG and Sharjah FC 1.40 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.81 against Sharjah FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.68, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 33% | Draw 26% | Sharjah FC 41%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 50%, Sharjah FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Wasl FC 1.68 PPG, Sharjah FC 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.