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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Wasl FC edge out Sharjah FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Wasl FC beat Sharjah FC 2-1 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.51 xG and Sharjah FC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.83 against Sharjah FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 44% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 30%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 63%, Sharjah FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Sharjah FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Wasl FC 1.77 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Wasl FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights