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Shock result as Sharjah FC defy the odds to beat Al-Wasl FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sharjah FC beat Al-Wasl FC 0-1 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.62 xG and Sharjah FC 1.45 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Wasl FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.38 / defence 0.98 against Sharjah FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.65, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 41% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 34%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Sharjah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 74%, Sharjah FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Sharjah FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Wasl FC 2.21 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights