Al-Wasl FC 1-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai meet at Zabeel Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Monday 19 December 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Al-Wasl FC (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Wasl FC have posted 5W 4D 1L at Zabeel Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al-Wasl FC 2W, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Wasl FC — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — key trading statistics (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 58% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 50% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.58 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.190 / defence 0.983 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.289 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.340. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Al-Wasl FC games / 36 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 36% | Draw 23% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 41%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Wasl FC 70% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 19 Dec 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 36% | Draw 23% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.58 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.190 / def 0.983 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.289 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 15:30 on Monday 19 December 2022 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al-Wasl FC 1 - 2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 36% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 2W | Draws 0 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Wasl FC's attack at 1.19x the league average against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack (1.29x) against Al-Wasl FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
36%
2.79
23%
4.33
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
3.28
1.70
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
2.79
36%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
7%
15.26
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.70 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Wasl FC's recent record stands at 15W 12D 9L from 36 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 19W 7D 10L across 36 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Al-Wasl FC against 1.78 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Wasl FC have managed 7W 7D 3L from 17 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 6W 5D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.47 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 15W 12D 9L in their last 36 games (1.58 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 19W 7D 10L in their last 36 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 1.65 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 3-0 on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Wasl FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Wasl FC
2
Draws
3
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 5, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 1-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 53%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al-Wasl FC) and 35% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai).
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 35%; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 47% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al-Wasl FC's recent games and 35% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Al-Wasl FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al-Wasl FC 1-2 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.58 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.70 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.98 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.29 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 36% | Draw 23% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 41%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 50%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Wasl FC 1.58 PPG, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.