Al-Wasl FC 5-2 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Khorfakkan make the trip to Zabeel Stadium to face Al-Wasl FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form
Al-Wasl FC (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Wasl FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Zabeel Stadium, Al-Wasl FC have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Khorfakkan's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Wasl FC. A 1.40 PPG lead over Khorfakkan (2.40 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Wasl FC lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Khorfakkan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Wasl FC — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Khorfakkan — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Wasl FC 59% and Khorfakkan 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 52% | Khorfakkan 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.90 xG and Khorfakkan 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.141 / defence 0.772 | Khorfakkan attack 0.835 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.614. Al-Wasl FC's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 29 Al-Wasl FC games / 29 Khorfakkan games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 57% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Khorfakkan 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Wasl FC (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Wasl FC 40% | Khorfakkan 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Sep 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 57% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.90 / Khorfakkan 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 1.141 / def 0.772 | Khorfakkan attack 0.835 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.614 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Khorfakkan xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 16:15 on Friday 4 September 2026 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Al-Wasl FC 5 - 2 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 57% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 4W | Draws 2 | Khorfakkan 3W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Wasl FC's attack at 1.14x the league average against Khorfakkan's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (0.83x) against Al-Wasl FC's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
57%
1.74
22%
4.50
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
2.94
1.04
Khorfakkan xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
3%
32.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.04 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Wasl FC's recent record stands at 16W 6D 7L from 29 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 13L across 29 games — 1.03 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Wasl FC by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Wasl FC have managed 9W 3D 2L from 14 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 4W 3D 7L across 14 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.31 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 16W 6D 7L in their last 29 games (1.86 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 7W 9D 13L in their last 29 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 2.14 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 1-5 on 11 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Wasl FC have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Wasl FC
2
Draws
3
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 5, Khorfakkan have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 5-2 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Wasl FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 50%, Khorfakkan 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al-Wasl FC) and 64% (Khorfakkan).
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Khorfakkan in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Khorfakkan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 50% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Al-Wasl FC's recent games and 64% of Khorfakkan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Wasl FC run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Khorfakkan 5-2 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.90 xG and Khorfakkan 1.04 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khorfakkan outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.77 against Khorfakkan attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 57% | Draw 22% | Khorfakkan 20%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 52%, Khorfakkan 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.