Al-Wasl FC 3-4 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Wasl FC (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Wasl FC face Khorfakkan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Khorfakkan make the trip to Zabeel Stadium to face Al-Wasl FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 16:45 UTC.
Form
Al-Wasl FC (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Wasl FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Zabeel Stadium, Al-Wasl FC have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Zabeel Stadium.
Khorfakkan's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Wasl FC. A 1.60 PPG lead over Khorfakkan (2.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Al-Wasl FC, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Khorfakkan — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 3–0 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Wasl FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Wasl FC — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Khorfakkan — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Wasl FC 63% and Khorfakkan 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Wasl FC 73% | Khorfakkan 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 2.19 xG and Khorfakkan 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.999 / defence 0.751 | Khorfakkan attack 0.878 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.924 / away 1.730. Al-Wasl FC's defence rating of 0.751 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 30 Al-Wasl FC games / 30 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 61% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Khorfakkan 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al-Wasl FC (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Wasl FC as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Wasl FC 40% | Khorfakkan 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 61% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Wasl FC 2.19 / Khorfakkan 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.999 / def 0.751 | Khorfakkan attack 0.878 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.924 / away 1.730 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Khorfakkan xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 16:45 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Al-Wasl FC 3 - 4 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 61% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 4W | Draws 2 | Khorfakkan 0W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Wasl FC's attack at 1.00x the league average against Khorfakkan's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (0.88x) against Al-Wasl FC's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
61%
1.63
20%
5.03
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
3.33
1.14
Khorfakkan xG
1.63
61%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
11%
8.97
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
2%
47.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.14 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Wasl FC's recent record stands at 23W 5D 2L from 30 games, a 2.47 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 17L across 30 games — 0.90 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Wasl FC by 1.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Wasl FC have managed 12W 2D 1L from 15 games — 2.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 2W 4D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.30 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 70%.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 23W 5D 2L in their last 30 games (2.47 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 7W 6D 17L in their last 30 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 2.53 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 3%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 1-5 on 11 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Wasl FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Wasl FC
3
Draws
3
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, Khorfakkan have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 0-1 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 53% for Al-Wasl FC, 80% for Khorfakkan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Wasl FC and 73% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Al-Wasl FC's games and 80% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Wasl FC's matches and 73% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Khorfakkan defy the odds to beat Al-Wasl FC 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al-Wasl FC 3-4 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 2.19 xG and Khorfakkan 1.14 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Al-Wasl FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khorfakkan outscored their 1.14 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.75 against Khorfakkan attack 0.88 / defence 1.14, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 61% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 19%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Khorfakkan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 73%, Khorfakkan 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Khorfakkan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.