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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Al-Wasl FC and Al Wahda FC drew 2-2 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.49 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Wahda FC outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.78 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 46% | Draw 26% | Al Wahda FC 29%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 69%, Al Wahda FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights