🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Al-Wasl FC edge out Al Nasr 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Wasl FC beat Al Nasr 2-1 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.30 xG and Al Nasr 0.97 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.86 against Al Nasr attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 44% | Draw 28% | Al Nasr 28%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 64%, Al Nasr 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Nasr's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Wasl FC 1.81 PPG, Al Nasr 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Wasl FC win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights