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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Wasl FC and Al Ain share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Al-Wasl FC and Al Ain drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.67 xG and Al Ain 1.29 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.87 against Al Ain attack 1.26 / defence 1.04, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 46% | Draw 24% | Al Ain 30%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 68%, Al Ain 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Ain's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Wasl FC 1.75 PPG, Al Ain 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Ain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights