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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.87 xG and Sharjah FC 1.21 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Wahda FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.35 / defence 0.75 against Sharjah FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.09, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 53% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 25%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 58%, Sharjah FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Sharjah FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Wahda FC 1.92 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights