Al Wahda FC 3-0 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Sharjah FC travel to Al Nahyan Stadium to take on Al Wahda FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025, 15:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wahda FC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's home record at Al Nahyan Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sharjah FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Wahda FC 1.60 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Al Wahda FC have won 1, Sharjah FC 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Sharjah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Wahda FC trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Sharjah FC trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wahda FC 65% and Sharjah FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 62% | Sharjah FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.50 xG and Sharjah FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.210 / defence 1.039 | Sharjah FC attack 0.887 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.371. Data: 48 Al Wahda FC games / 48 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 43% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Sharjah FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 80% | Sharjah FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 43% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.50 / Sharjah FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.210 / def 1.039 | Sharjah FC attack 0.887 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Sharjah FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 15:05 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC?
Al Wahda FC 3 - 0 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 43% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC?
Record (6 meetings): Al Wahda FC 1W | Draws 2 | Sharjah FC 3W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Sharjah FC's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
43%
2.33
25%
3.96
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.26
Sharjah FC xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
7%
14.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.26 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Al Wahda FC have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 22W 14D 12L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC's form line: 24W 15D 9L from 48 games, 1.81 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Wahda FC on 1.67 PPG, Sharjah FC on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Wahda FC have posted 1.83 PPG from 24 outings (12W 8D 4L).
On the road, Sharjah FC have gone 12W 7D 5L from 24 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.85 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Sharjah FC in 60%.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 22W 14D 12L in their last 48 games (1.67 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 24W 15D 9L in their last 48 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Sharjah FC away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.83 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al Wahda FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2025, when Al Wahda FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Wahda FC
3
Draws
3
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 4, Sharjah FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Al Wahda FC 1-0 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Wahda FC at 75%, Sharjah FC at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Al Wahda FC and 54% for Sharjah FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Sharjah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al Wahda FC's games and 71% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 54% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Wahda FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sharjah FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Sharjah FC 3-0 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.50 xG and Sharjah FC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Wahda FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sharjah FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.21 / defence 1.04 against Sharjah FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.81, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 43% | Draw 25% | Sharjah FC 32%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 62%, Sharjah FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wahda FC 1.67 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wahda FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.