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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Wahda FC edge out Khorfakkan 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Wahda FC beat Khorfakkan 1-0 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.72 xG and Khorfakkan 1.51 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Khorfakkan landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.28 / defence 1.05 against Khorfakkan attack 1.11 / defence 1.00, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 43% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 34%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 59%, Khorfakkan 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Khorfakkan's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights