Al Wahda FC 3-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Khorfakkan travel to Al Nahyan Stadium to take on Al Wahda FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wahda FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 5W 3D 2L at Al Nahyan Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Khorfakkan have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Al Wahda FC) versus 1.20 (Khorfakkan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al Wahda FC, 1 for Khorfakkan and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Al Wahda FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Wahda FC trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Khorfakkan trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wahda FC 62% and Khorfakkan 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Wahda FC 60% | Khorfakkan 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 2.18 xG and Khorfakkan 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.083 / defence 1.016 | Khorfakkan attack 1.053 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.750 / away 1.471. Data: 40 Al Wahda FC games / 40 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 52% | Draw 21% | Khorfakkan 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 1.92 | Draw 4.76 | Khorfakkan 3.57. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.76 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 50% | Khorfakkan 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 52% | Draw 21% | Khorfakkan 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 70% | xG Al Wahda FC 2.18 / Khorfakkan 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.083 / def 1.016 | Khorfakkan attack 1.053 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.750 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Khorfakkan xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Al Wahda FC 3 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 52% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 28% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan?
Record (7 meetings): Al Wahda FC 3W | Draws 3 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Wahda FC's attack at 1.08x the league average against Khorfakkan's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
52%
1.94
21%
4.85
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.76
1.57
Khorfakkan xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.38
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
11%
8.86
Win to Nil
11%
9.35
3%
31.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.57 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Al Wahda FC have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 18W 10D 12L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan's form line: 10W 9D 21L from 40 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Wahda FC are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khorfakkan.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Wahda FC have posted 1.80 PPG from 20 outings (10W 6D 4L).
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 4W 4D 12L from 20 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.45 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 72%.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 18W 10D 12L in their last 40 games (1.60 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 10W 9D 21L in their last 40 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.80 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
4
Draws
1
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Khorfakkan have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Wahda FC at 70%, Khorfakkan at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al Wahda FC and 75% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al Wahda FC's games and 80% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 75% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Khorfakkan 3-1 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 2.18 xG and Khorfakkan 1.57 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Wahda FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.02 against Khorfakkan attack 1.05 / defence 1.15, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 52% | Draw 21% | Khorfakkan 28%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 60%, Khorfakkan 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.