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Prediction vindicated as Al Wahda FC edge out Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Wahda FC beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-0 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 2.66 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.68 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Wahda FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.24 / defence 0.77 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.65 / defence 1.55, drawn from 39/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 79% | Draw 13% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 7%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 79%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 38%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights