Al Wahda FC 1-1 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Nahyan Stadium plays host to Al Wahda FC versus Baniyas SC in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Thursday 26 August 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Wahda FC have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Pro League outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. They are averaging 4.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al Wahda FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baniyas SC (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Pro League outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Baniyas SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 3.00 in Al Wahda FC's favour (3.00 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Al Wahda FC have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Baniyas SC in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 0.99 xG and Baniyas SC 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 0.969 / defence 1.150 | Baniyas SC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.886 / away 0.830. Data: 1 Al Wahda FC games / 1 Baniyas SC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 38% | Draw 33% | Baniyas SC 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Baniyas SC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Baniyas SC's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Aug 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 38% | Draw 33% | Baniyas SC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Al Wahda FC 0.99 / Baniyas SC 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 0.969 / def 1.150 | Baniyas SC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.886 / away 0.830 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Baniyas SC xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 18:30 on Thursday 26 August 2021 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC?
Al Wahda FC 1 - 1 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 38% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Baniyas SC (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Wahda FC's attack rating (0.97) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baniyas SC's attack (0.85x) against Al Wahda FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
38%
2.60
33%
3.06
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
1.80
0.81
Baniyas SC xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 13.4 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 0.81 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, Al Wahda FC have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baniyas SC's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Baniyas SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Wahda FC are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
Attack vs Defence
Al Wahda FC are averaging 4.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al Wahda FC's scoring rate against Baniyas SC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Baniyas SC in 0%.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
Baniyas SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Al Wahda FC or Baniyas SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Baniyas SC in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won 0-3 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wahda FC have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
3
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Baniyas SC 1-0 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Baniyas SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 0% of Baniyas SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Al Wahda FC's recent games and 0% of Baniyas SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Al Wahda FC and Baniyas SC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 0.99 xG and Baniyas SC 0.81 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Baniyas SC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 38% | Draw 33% | Baniyas SC 29%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 100%, Baniyas SC 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Wahda FC managed 1 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baniyas SC scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.