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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Wahda FC edge out Al Nasr 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Wahda FC beat Al Nasr 3-2 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.61 xG and Al Nasr 1.20 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Wahda FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Nasr outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.30 / defence 1.03 against Al Nasr attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 47% | Draw 25% | Al Nasr 28%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 59%, Al Nasr 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Nasr's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Nasr (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights