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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Wahda FC and Al Nasr share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Wahda FC and Al Nasr finished level at 2-2 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 2.08 xG and Al Nasr 1.11 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Nasr outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.98 against Al Nasr attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 60% | Draw 21% | Al Nasr 20%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 61%, Al Nasr 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Al Nasr's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Wahda FC 1.73 PPG, Al Nasr 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights