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Al Bataeh cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Wahda FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Bataeh beat Al Wahda FC 0-2 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 2.18 xG and Al Bataeh 1.20 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Wahda FC fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.96 against Al Bataeh attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 59% | Draw 21% | Al Bataeh 20%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Al Bataeh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 60%, Al Bataeh 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Bataeh's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Al Bataeh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights