Al Wahda FC 0-2 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Wahda FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Wahda FC face Al Bataeh.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Wahda FC host Al Bataeh at Al Nahyan Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 23 January 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Al Nahyan Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Bataeh — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Wahda FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Wahda FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Bataeh in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al Wahda FC, 1 for Al Bataeh and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Al Wahda FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al Bataeh in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wahda FC 63% and Al Bataeh 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Wahda FC 60% | Al Bataeh 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 2.18 xG and Al Bataeh 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.195 / defence 0.961 | Al Bataeh attack 0.906 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.786 / away 1.379. Data: 38 Al Wahda FC games / 38 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 59% | Draw 21% | Al Bataeh 20%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Al Bataeh 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al Wahda FC (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 60% | Al Bataeh 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Jan 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 59% | Draw 21% | Al Bataeh 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Al Wahda FC 2.18 / Al Bataeh 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.195 / def 0.961 | Al Bataeh attack 0.906 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.786 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Al Bataeh xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 23 January 2025 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Al Wahda FC 0 - 2 Al Bataeh.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 59% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh?
Record (4 meetings): Al Wahda FC 3W | Draws 0 | Al Bataeh 1W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Al Bataeh (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Al Bataeh's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. The same calculation in reverse, Al Bataeh's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
59%
1.68
21%
4.86
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.38
1.20
Al Bataeh xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
11%
8.87
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
2%
44.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.20 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Wahda FC come into this having played 38 games, going 18W 10D 10L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Bataeh sit at 1.18 PPG from 38 outings (12W 9D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Wahda FC's home form reads 10W 6D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Bataeh have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.47 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Al Bataeh in 71%.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 18W 10D 10L in their last 38 games (1.68 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al Bataeh away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.89 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2022, when Al Wahda FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Al Bataeh specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
1
Draws
2
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Al Bataeh have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Al Wahda FC 2-2 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Wahda FC at 74%, Al Bataeh at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Al Wahda FC and 74% for Al Bataeh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Al Wahda FC's games and 68% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 74% of Al Bataeh's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Bataeh cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Wahda FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Bataeh beat Al Wahda FC 0-2 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 2.18 xG and Al Bataeh 1.20 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Wahda FC fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.96 against Al Bataeh attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 59% | Draw 21% | Al Bataeh 20%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Al Bataeh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 60%, Al Bataeh 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Al Bataeh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.