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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Ain edge out Al Wahda FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Ain beat Al Wahda FC 0-1 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.47 xG and Al Ain 1.49 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Wahda FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.82 against Al Ain attack 1.32 / defence 0.94, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 37% | Draw 24% | Al Ain 38%, with Al Ain to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 53%, Al Ain 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Ain's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Wahda FC 1.82 PPG, Al Ain 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Ain win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Ain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights