Al Urooba vs Sharjah FC – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Al Urooba 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sharjah FC beat Al Urooba 0-1 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Urooba 1.04 xG and Sharjah FC 2.22 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Urooba fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sharjah FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Urooba attack 0.92 / defence 1.58 against Sharjah FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.71, drawn from 17/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Urooba 17% | Draw 19% | Sharjah FC 64%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Urooba 71%, Sharjah FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Urooba's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sharjah FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Urooba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights