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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Urooba and Al Wahda FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Urooba and Al Wahda FC finished level at 1-1 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Urooba 1.24 xG and Al Wahda FC 2.14 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Wahda FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Urooba attack 0.92 / defence 1.40 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.92, drawn from 21/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Urooba 22% | Draw 21% | Al Wahda FC 58%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Urooba 71%, Al Wahda FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Urooba's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Urooba (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights