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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Jazira edge out Al Urooba 4-5.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Jazira beat Al Urooba 4-5 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Urooba 1.06 xG and Al-Jazira 2.31 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 4-5 for 9 actual goals. Al Urooba beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Jazira outscored their 2.31 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Urooba attack 0.67 / defence 1.41 against Al-Jazira attack 1.15 / defence 0.92, drawn from 14/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Urooba 16% | Draw 19% | Al-Jazira 65%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Urooba 71%, Al-Jazira 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Urooba's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Jazira's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Urooba (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights