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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ajman cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Urooba.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ajman beat Al Urooba 0-2 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Urooba 1.61 xG and Ajman 1.61 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Urooba fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Urooba attack 0.74 / defence 1.39 against Ajman attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 9/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Urooba 36% | Draw 27% | Ajman 36%, with Al Urooba to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ajman win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Urooba 78%, Ajman 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Urooba's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ajman's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Ajman arrived the stronger side — 0.78 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Urooba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajman (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights