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Shock result as Al Nasr defy the odds to beat Sharjah FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Nasr beat Sharjah FC 2-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.08 xG and Sharjah FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al Nasr beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against Sharjah FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.73, drawn from 46/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 30% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 43%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al Nasr win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 64%, Sharjah FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Nasr's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Sharjah FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.50 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights