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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Al Nasr 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al Nasr 0-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.05 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.05 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Nasr fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.95 / defence 0.90 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.94 / defence 0.78, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 35% | Draw 30% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 35%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 62%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Nasr's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Nasr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights