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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Al Nasr and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.30 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.64 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.16 / defence 0.82, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 30% | Draw 24% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 45%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 65%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Nasr's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights