Al Nasr 1-0 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 37%, yet in-form Khorfakkan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Khorfakkan travel to Al Maktoum Stadium to take on Al Nasr. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 February 2023, 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Nasr stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Nasr have posted 3W 1D 6L at Al Maktoum Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Khorfakkan — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Khorfakkan have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Khorfakkan are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al Nasr, 1 for Khorfakkan and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Nasr trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Khorfakkan trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 54% versus Khorfakkan 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Nasr 63% | Khorfakkan 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.16 xG and Khorfakkan 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 0.724 / defence 0.971 | Khorfakkan attack 0.765 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.503. Al Nasr's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Al Nasr games / 41 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 37% | Draw 29% | Khorfakkan 35%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Khorfakkan 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Khorfakkan (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Nasr 50% | Khorfakkan 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 37% | Draw 29% | Khorfakkan 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Al Nasr 1.16 / Khorfakkan 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 0.724 / def 0.971 | Khorfakkan attack 0.765 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Khorfakkan xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 16:15 on Friday 10 February 2023 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Al Nasr 1 - 0 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 37% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al Nasr and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan?
Record (3 meetings): Al Nasr 1W | Draws 1 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Nasr's attack rating (0.72) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
37%
2.71
29%
3.51
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.28
1.12
Khorfakkan xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
11%
9.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.12 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 11W 11D 19L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan's form line: 12W 8D 21L from 41 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Nasr on 1.07 PPG, Khorfakkan on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (7W 3D 10L).
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 2W 5D 13L from 20 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Nasr are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.34 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 11W 11D 19L in their last 41 games (1.07 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 12W 8D 21L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.20 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2022, when Khorfakkan won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Nasr
4
Draws
2
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 4, Khorfakkan have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Al Nasr 2-2 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 40%, Khorfakkan 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Al Nasr and 75% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Nasr have failed to score in 30% of games; Khorfakkan in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Khorfakkan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 65% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Al Nasr's matches and 75% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al Nasr and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Khorfakkan 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Khorfakkan 1-0 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.16 xG and Khorfakkan 1.12 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Khorfakkan landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.72 / defence 0.97 against Khorfakkan attack 0.77 / defence 1.04, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 37% | Draw 29% | Khorfakkan 35%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 63%, Khorfakkan 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.07 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock. Al Nasr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.