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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Nasr cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Khorfakkan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Nasr beat Khorfakkan 3-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 2.27 xG and Khorfakkan 1.76 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.07 / defence 0.95 against Khorfakkan attack 1.22 / defence 1.16, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 48% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 29%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 66%, Khorfakkan 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Nasr's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Khorfakkan's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Nasr (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights