Al Nasr 3-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Khorfakkan travel to Al Maktoum Stadium to take on Al Nasr. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 December 2024, 12:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Nasr stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Nasr have posted 6W 3D 1L at Al Maktoum Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Al Nasr are significantly better at Al Maktoum Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Khorfakkan — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Khorfakkan have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Nasr 1.60 PPG, Khorfakkan 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al Nasr, 2 for Khorfakkan and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Al Nasr winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Nasr trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Khorfakkan trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Nasr 63% and Khorfakkan 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Nasr 66% | Khorfakkan 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 2.27 xG and Khorfakkan 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.069 / defence 0.946 | Khorfakkan attack 1.218 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.837 / away 1.532. Khorfakkan have an above-average attack strength of 1.218 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Al Nasr games / 35 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 48% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Khorfakkan 3.45. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.03 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 76% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Nasr 70% | Khorfakkan 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 48% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 76% | xG Al Nasr 2.27 / Khorfakkan 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.069 / def 0.946 | Khorfakkan attack 1.218 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.837 / away 1.532 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Khorfakkan xG
76%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 12:45 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Al Nasr 3 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 48% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Al Nasr and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan?
Record (6 meetings): Al Nasr 3W | Draws 1 | Khorfakkan 2W.
What form are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Nasr's attack rating (1.07) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
48%
2.09
23%
4.29
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
4.03
1.76
Khorfakkan xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.15
Clean Sheet
17%
5.83
10%
9.66
Win to Nil
8%
12.16
3%
33.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.76 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 16W 7D 12L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan's form line: 9W 8D 18L from 35 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Nasr are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khorfakkan.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.82 PPG from 17 outings (9W 4D 4L).
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 4W 4D 9L from 17 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Nasr are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.43 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 74%.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 16W 7D 12L in their last 35 games (1.57 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 9W 8D 18L in their last 35 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.82 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2022, when Khorfakkan won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Nasr
4
Draws
2
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 4, Khorfakkan have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Al Nasr 2-2 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Khorfakkan?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Nasr at 59%, Khorfakkan at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Al Nasr and 76% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al Nasr's games and 82% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Nasr vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Al Nasr's matches and 76% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al Nasr and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Nasr cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Khorfakkan 3-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 2.27 xG and Khorfakkan 1.76 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.07 / defence 0.95 against Khorfakkan attack 1.22 / defence 1.16, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 48% | Draw 23% | Khorfakkan 29%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 66%, Khorfakkan 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Nasr (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.