Al Nasr vs Dibba Al Hisn – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Nasr's attack rating (0.97) and Dibba Al Hisn's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dibba Al Hisn's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
58%
1.71
27%
3.72
15%
6.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.93
0.95
Dibba Al Hisn xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
6.80
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
14%
7.22
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
2%
49.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Dibba Al Hisn expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Al Nasr and 0.95 for Dibba Al Hisn, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.