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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Nasr and Dibba Al-Fujairah finished level at 1-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.34 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.94 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.89 / defence 0.90 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 30/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 46% | Draw 28% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 26%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 0%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Nasr's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.

Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dibba Al-Fujairah conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights