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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Al Nasr and Al Wahda FC drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.08 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Nasr beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.83, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 30% | Draw 28% | Al Wahda FC 42%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 56%, Al Wahda FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Nasr's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Al Wahda FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.41 PPG, Al Wahda FC 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights