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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Al Urooba 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Nasr beat Al Urooba 2-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 3.14 xG and Al Urooba 0.67 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al Nasr fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.22 / defence 0.99 against Al Urooba attack 0.48 / defence 1.47, drawn from 39/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 85% | Draw 11% | Al Urooba 5%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 85%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 85%, Al Urooba 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Nasr's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.

Al Urooba's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Nasr arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Urooba (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights