🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Al-Jazira defy the odds to beat Al Nasr 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Jazira beat Al Nasr 2-3 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.99 xG and Al-Jazira 1.88 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Jazira outscored their 1.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Al-Jazira attack 1.34 / defence 1.16, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 41% | Draw 21% | Al-Jazira 37%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Al-Jazira win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 63%, Al-Jazira 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Nasr's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Jazira's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.59 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Jazira win broke the near-deadlock. Al Nasr (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights